The sharp accumulation in government debt can't go on forever

Summary:

·       Sovereign debts have increased sharply since the eighties;

·       Global monetary stimulus has created a low interest rate environment but public authorities have failed to benefit from cheap money to reduce debt;

·       Relying solely on monetary easing to mitigate the sovereign risk is too dangerous especially given the weakness of the economic growth.

Government debts in most developed countries have increased markedly since the eighties. Ultra-expansionary monetary policies have dragged down sovereign interest rates below growth rates preventing any fiscal solvency [1] issues in the short run. However, monetary easing failed to stimulate growth significantly and most countries have not benefited from the low interest environment to generate budget surpluses. The sharp accumulation in government debt can't go on forever. Don't be surprised to see global growth damped by debt in the coming years…

1-     Government debt sustainability

2-     Debt ratios at historically high levels

3-     Perverse effects of ultra-accommodative monetary policies

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Diplômé de l'Université Paris Dauphine en Gestion d'actifs et membre CAIA (Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst), Alexandre Pietrzyk est Analyste High Yield au sein de Candriam. Il a auparavant travaillé en tant que Gérant/Analyste obligataire après avoir évolué en tant qu'Analyste Hedge Fund Global Macro au sein d'Amundi à Londres. Ses principaux centres d'intérêts portent sur les marchés de crédit et de taux, les pays de l'Europe de l'Est ainsi que l'analyse de la soutenabilité de la dette souveraine.

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